With simple moving averages, to determine the estimated value for a given period, you'll take the average of the X periods before it.
Scenario: Given the yearly Tinder statistics from Delta Apple Pi at Crammer Nation University, determine the estimated values using a 3-point moving average.
Year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tinder Matches | 1204 | 1329 | 1297 | 1432 | 1406 |
Estimated (y-tilde) | - | - | ??? | ??? | ??? |
y-tilde_{t} is the estimated value for a current period "t".
MA(L) is the Moving Average of the previous L periods.
Given L = 3
...
Year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tinder Matches | 1204 | 1329 | 1297 | 1432 | 1406 |
Estimated | - | - | ??? | ??? | ??? |
t-tilde_{2021} = (1204 + 1329 + 1297) / 3
t-tilde_{2021} = (3830) / 3
t-tilde_{2021} = 1276.67
Year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tinder Matches | 1204 | 1329 | 1297 | 1432 | 1406 |
Estimated | - | - | 1276.67 | ??? | ??? |
Year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tinder Matches | 1204 | 1329 | 1297 | 1432 | 1406 |
Estimated (y-hat) | - | - | 1276.67 | 1352.67 | 1378.33 |
In the graph below...
This is because we're taking the average of more values, so an individual value is less impactful on the forecast!
With simple moving averages, to determine the predicted value for a given period, reference the estimated value from the previous period!
Scenario: Given the yearly Tinder statistics from Delta Apple Pi at Crammer Nation University, determine the predicted value for 2024.
Year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tinder Matches | 1204 | 1329 | 1297 | 1432 | 1406 |
Estimated | - | - | 1276.667 | 1352.667 | 1378.333 |
Answer: The predicted Tinder matches for 2024 are 1378.333.
Year | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tinder Matches | 1204 | 1329 | 1297 | 1432 | 1406 | - |
Estimated | - | - | 1276.667 | 1352.667 | 1378.333 | - |
Predicted (y-hat) | - | - | - | ??? | ??? | 1378.333 |
You can only predict one period into the future!
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Complete the below time series table with a 3 point moving average. Round values to 2 decimal places if needed.
Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Steps Walked | 7800 | 12300 | 15900 | 13800 |
EstimatedÂ (y-tilde) | – | – | ||
Predicted (y-hat) | – | – | – |
Given the below time series, with a 3 point moving average, predict the number of steps that’ll be walked on Friday.
Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Steps Walked | 7800 | 12300 | 15900 | 13800 |
EstimatedÂ (y-tilde) | – | – | ??? | ??? |
Predicted (y-hat) | – | – | – | ??? |
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